ARBE

What are the short‑term technical trading signals (e.g., SMA, RSI, volume) and how might the news impact intraday price action?

Created August 07, 2025 at 11:03 AM

Short‑term technical picture for ARBE (Q2‑2025 earnings release)

Indicator	Typical set‑up for an intraday / 1‑day chart	What to watch after the earnings release
Simple Moving Averages (SMA)	• 5‑period SMA (5‑min) – shows the very‑short‑term trend. • 20‑period SMA (20‑min) – smooths out the early‑session swing. • 50‑period SMA (50‑min) – acts as a “intraday swing” reference.	• Bullish bias: If the price breaks above the 5‑min SMA and quickly retests the 20‑min SMA as support, the short‑term trend is likely upward. • Bearish bias: A break below the 5‑min SMA with the 20‑min SMA turning into resistance signals a down‑move. • Crossover cue: A 5‑min SMA crossing above the 20‑min SMA (golden cross) early in the session often precedes a short‑term rally; the opposite (death cross) often precedes a pull‑back.
Relative Strength Index (RSI‑14)	• 14‑period RSI on a 5‑min chart (or 14‑period on a 1‑hour chart). • Over‑bought > 70, Over‑sold < 30.	• Momentum read‑out: An RSI that spikes above 70 right after the press‑release suggests a rapid, possibly over‑extended rally – watch for a quick profit‑take or a reversal. • Divergence: If price makes a new high but RSI fails to make a higher high (bearish divergence), the rally may be short‑lived. • Re‑entry: An RSI that falls into the 30‑40 “neutral‑to‑oversold” zone and then climbs back above 50 can be a sign of a bounce‑back after an initial sell‑off.
Volume (on‑balance or raw bar volume)	• 5‑min or 1‑hour volume bars. • Compare to the average daily volume (ADV) – a spike > 150 % of ADV is a strong signal.	• Confirmation: A price move (up or down) that is accompanied by a volume surge > 1.5× ADV is a high‑confidence signal that the move is backed by market participation. • Lack of volume: A price swing on thin volume is fragile – expect a quick reversal or a “fade.” • Post‑earnings volume: Earnings releases often generate a pre‑market/after‑hours volume burst; the continuation of that volume into the regular session is a key gauge of how seriously the market is pricing the news.
Other intraday cues	• VWAP (Volume‑Weighted average price) – acts as a intraday “fair‑value” line. • Momentum oscillators (e.g., Stochastics, MACD) – can be used for short‑term entry/exit confirmation.	• VWAP bounce: If the price retests VWAP after the earnings move, it often serves as a “magnet” for short‑term traders. • MACD histogram: A quick rise in the histogram after the release can confirm bullish momentum; a rapid collapse can flag a short‑term top.

How the Q2‑2025 earnings news could shape intraday price action

Possible earnings narrative	Expected market reaction (short‑term)	Technical implications
Positive surprise – revenue & RFQ pipeline ahead of guidance	• Immediate after‑hours rally; pre‑market buyers push the price up 4‑8 % before the regular session. • Momentum traders will look for a breakout on the opening bell.	• SMA: 5‑min SMA likely flips above the 20‑min SMA (golden cross) early in the session. • RSI: May jump into the 70‑80 range, indicating over‑bought conditions – a short‑term profit‑take could be imminent. • Volume: Expect a high‑volume burst (> 150 % of ADV) as institutional and algorithmic participants ingest the news. • VWAP: The price may hold above the VWAP, which will have shifted upward with the rally.
Neutral or modest beat – results in line with prior expectations	• Calm market; price may drift sideways or show a modest 1‑2 % move. • Traders may “price‑in” the earnings already, leading to low volatility.	• SMA: No clear cross; the 5‑min SMA may hover around the 20‑min SMA, creating a “flat” pattern. • RSI: Stays in the 45‑55 neutral band – no strong momentum signal. • Volume: Slight uptick but likely near‑average; no decisive confirmation.
Miss or weak guidance – lower RFQ outlook, revenue shortfall	• Sharp sell‑off in after‑hours; the regular session could open 4‑10 % lower. • Short‑term “panic” traders may flood the market, creating a downward breakout.	• SMA: 5‑min SMA will cross below the 20‑min SMA (death cross) quickly. • RSI: May dip into the 30‑35 range (oversold) but could also breach 30, flagging a strong bearish move. • Volume: A high‑volume decline (> 150 % of ADV) confirms the sell‑off. • VWAP: The price will likely stay below the VWAP, which itself will be dragged down as the session progresses.
Qualitative nuance – “new RFQ pipeline” but no immediate revenue	• Mixed reaction – some traders may view the pipeline as a future catalyst, while others wait for concrete bookings. • Intraday volatility may be elevated, with price oscillating between the 5‑min SMA and 20‑min SMA.	• RSI: May swing between 45‑55, showing no clear direction. • Volume: spiky – bursts on each news‑related tweet or analyst comment, but not sustained. • Stochastic: May produce repeated over‑bought/over‑sold signals as the market tests the “pipeline” narrative.

Practical intraday‑trading playbook for the earnings day

Time frame	What to do	Why
Pre‑market (08:00‑09:30 ET)	• Scan Level‑2 order‑book for large imbalances (e.g., > 2 % of float on the bid or ask). • Watch the pre‑market VWAP – if the price is already above it, the rally may have already been priced in.	Early positioning can capture the “gap‑up” or “gap‑down” before the official open.
Opening bell (09:30 ET)	• Momentum entry if price breaks above the high of the previous day with > 150 % ADV and the 5‑min SMA turns bullish. • Short‑sell if price breaks below the prior low with a death‑cross and heavy volume.	The first 5‑15 minutes set the day’s bias; volume‑confirmed breaks are the most reliable intraday signals.
Mid‑session (10:00‑13:00 ET)	• Trailing stop on the winning side (e.g., 1 % or 0.5 % depending on volatility). • RSI watch: If RSI > 70 (bullish) or < 30 (bearish) for > 2 consecutive bars, consider taking partial profit.	Protects against rapid reversal after an early‑session over‑extension.
Late session (13:00‑16:00 ET)	• VWAP re‑test: If price has been above VWAP all session, a pull‑back toward VWAP can be a “fair‑value” entry for a continuation. • Volume fade: If volume drops back to < 80 % of ADV while price still moves, the move may be losing steam – tighten stops.	As the session matures, the market digests the earnings details and any guidance; VWAP and volume become the primary “re‑pricing” anchors.
Post‑close (16:00 ET onward)	• Review the after‑hours tape – a sustained volume surge after the close often foreshadows the next day’s open. • Log the SMA/RSI state for the next day’s pre‑market analysis.	Earnings news can keep moving the tape after the bell; a strong after‑hours trend often carries over to the next day.

Key take‑aways

Volume is the decisive filter.
- > 150 % of average daily volume + a price break = high‑confidence intraday signal.
- < 80 % of average volume on a price swing = fragile, likely to reverse.
SMA crossovers (5‑min vs. 20‑min) are the quickest way to spot the short‑term bias immediately after the earnings release. A golden cross = bullish; a death cross = bearish.
RSI extremes (≥ 70 or ≤ 30) are common after earnings surprises. Expect a quick profit‑take or reversal once the RSI hits an extreme and holds there for a couple of bars.
VWAP will shift in the direction of the dominant move; price that can hold above (or below) the VWAP after the initial breakout often signals a continuation, while a failure to stay on the “right side” of VWAP often precedes a fade.
Qualitative details (e.g., “new RFQ pipeline”) can create a “future‑growth” narrative that fuels volatility but may not produce an immediate directional move. In such cases, expect wide intraday swings with repeated SMA/RSI whipsaws—use tight stops and smaller position sizes.

Sample intraday chart set‑up (for a 5‑min chart)

Indicator	Settings
5‑min SMA	5‑period
20‑min SMA	20‑period
RSI	14‑period, over‑bought 70, over‑sold 30
Volume	Plot as bars; add a % of ADV line (e.g., 150 % threshold)
VWAP	Standard intraday VWAP
MACD	12‑fast, 26‑slow, 9‑signal (histogram) for extra momentum confirmation

When the Q2‑2025 earnings are released (≈ 09:30 ET), overlay the above indicators on the live chart. A golden‑cross + RSI 65‑70 + volume > 150 % ADV would be a classic intraday long‑bias; conversely, a death‑cross + RSI 35‑30 + volume surge on the downside would be a short‑bias.

Bottom line

If the results beat expectations (revenue, RFQ pipeline, guidance) → expect a sharp, high‑volume, bullish breakout. Look for a golden SMA cross, RSI climbing toward 70, and volume > 150 % ADV. The price will likely hold above the VWAP and may test the next resistance level (e.g., prior high or a 5‑min SMA swing high).
If the results miss or guidance is weak → anticipate a high‑volume, bearish breakdown. Watch for a death SMA cross, RSI falling into the 30‑zone, and volume surge on the sell side. The price will likely stay below VWAP and may test the prior low or a 5‑min SMA swing low.
If the news is neutral or forward‑looking (pipeline without immediate revenue) → expect moderate volatility, choppy SMA/RSI behavior, and volume spikes only on secondary news releases. In this scenario, intraday traders should keep positions small, use tight stops, and focus on the VWAP re‑test for any directional confirmation.

By monitoring these short‑term technical signals in real time, you can gauge whether the Q2‑2025 earnings will fuel a intraday rally, a quick reversal, or a period of sideways consolidation for ARBE.