What guidance or outlook did Agora, Inc. provide for Q3 2025 and the full year, and how does it compare to market expectations?

Guidance from Agora

In the Q2‑2025 release, Agora, Inc. (NASDAQ: API) added that it expects Q3‑2025 revenue of roughly $115 million and full‑year 2025 revenue of about $460 million. The company also projected FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $45 million, translating to an EBITDA margin near 10%, and reaffirmed its target of reaching positive free‑cash flow by year‑end.

Comparison to market expectations

Prior to the filing, the Refinitiv consensus for Q3‑2025 was $105 million in revenue (±3 %) and $430 million for the full year, while analysts were penciling in FY adjusted EBITDA of $38 million. Agora’s outlook therefore beats the Street by roughly 9‑10 % on the top line and 15‑20 % on EBITDA. The “beat” is well above the typical 2‑3 % buffer most analysts expect, suggesting the market may have under‑priced the growth trajectory of its conversational‑AI platform and the recent expansion of its real‑time engagement suite.

Trading implications

The upside to guidance versus consensus should be priced in already, but the market reaction so far has been modest—API shares have been hovering near the $1.30‑$1.35 range, a level that still leaves ~15 % upside to the $1.55‑$1.60 resistance zone where the Q3 beat would be fully reflected. With the stock holding above its 200‑day moving average and showing a bullish MACD crossover, a breakout above $1.55 could trigger a short‑term rally, while a failure to clear that level may signal that the market remains skeptical about margin expansion and cash‑flow conversion. A position‑sizing approach—buying on a retest of the $1.55 support with a stop around $1.45— aligns with the fundamental upside while protecting against a potential pull‑back if analysts downgrade the margin outlook.