How will Amphenol's acquisition of Trexon affect APH's revenue and margin forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year?

Revenue & margin outlook:

Amphenol’s purchase of Trexon is slated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025—after the company’s current fiscal‑year reporting period (which ends in September 2025). Consequently, the acquisition will not be incorporated into the FY‑2025 guidance that analysts have already modeled, and the consensus revenue and EBIT‑margin forecasts for the upcoming year should remain essentially unchanged. The market will, however, begin to price‑in the next‑year (FY‑2026) upside, as Trexon’s $1.1‑billion‑plus annual sales of custom interconnects will add a meaningful top‑line boost once the deal is consummated.

Impact on forecasts & trading thesis:

When the transaction closes, Trexon’s high‑mix, high‑margin product mix is expected to lift Amphenol’s overall gross margin by roughly 30‑40 bps after accounting for integration costs and the incremental working‑capital outlay. Analysts will likely raise FY‑2026 revenue guidance by $200‑$250 million (≈2‑3 % of Amphenol’s existing sales) and nudge EBITDA‑margin guidance upward modestly. For traders, the news is already baked into the price, so there is limited upside from the immediate announcement. The actionable play is to stay long or add to positions ahead of the FY‑2026 earnings release, where the first‑quarter impact of Trexon will be reflected, and watch for a guidance lift that could push the stock toward the $210‑$225 target range. Conversely, any delays in closing or integration hiccups could temper the anticipated margin accretion, making the stock vulnerable to a short‑term pullback.