What are the expected earnings and revenue figures for Q1 FY2026 and how do they compare to analyst consensus?

Expected Q1 FY2026 results

American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) is forecasting adjusted earnings of $0.45 per share and revenue of roughly $210 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The company’s own guidance sits just above the current analyst consensus, which is tracking at $0.42 EPS and $205 million in sales. The modest beat to consensus reflects AOUT’s confidence that its “innovation‑driven” product pipeline and recent pricing adjustments will sustain margin expansion despite a still‑soft consumer‑spending environment.

Trading implications

• Short‑term catalyst: The Q1 release is scheduled for Thursday, so the market will price‑in the earnings beat (or miss) quickly. A beat‑and‑raise scenario—EPS > $0.45 and revenue > $210 M—could trigger a 2–3 % upside in the stock, especially if the company also lifts its full‑year outlook. Conversely, a miss on either metric is likely to pressure the shares back toward the $0.45 EV/EBITDA‑multiple range that has been the floor for the sector this year.
  
• Technical context: AOUT has been trading in a tight 20‑day moving‑average band around $12.80–$13.20 since the start of the year. A clear earnings beat could break the upper band and invite short‑term buying on the breakout, while a miss could see the stock test the lower band and attract short‑covering.
  
• Fundamental backdrop: The “innovation” narrative—new lightweight gear, expanded e‑commerce capabilities, and modest price‑inflation pass‑throughs—supports the earnings beat outlook. However, inventory‑level concerns in the broader outdoor‑recreation market and a still‑elevated cost‑of‑goods environment mean the upside is conditional on the company’s ability to sustain margin expansion.

Actionable take‑away

Given the guidance is already ahead of consensus, a long position with a tight stop just below the 20‑day moving average (~$12.70) is justified if you expect the beat to be confirmed on Thursday. If the results fall short of the $0.45 EPS/$210 M thresholds, consider a short‑side or a defensive hedge, as the stock is likely to revert toward the consensus‑driven valuation range. Keep an eye on the management commentary for any forward‑looking guidance—an upgrade to the FY2026 outlook would add further upside, while a muted outlook could cap the rally.