How will the sale of NFP's wealth business affect Aon's revenue and earnings guidance going forward?

The divestiture of NFP’s wealth platform removes roughly $200‑$250 million of annual revenue (about 3‑4 % of Aon’s 2024 top‑line) but is treated as a non‑core, non‑recurring line item. Because the wealth business carries lower margin and higher overhead than Aon’s core risk‑capital and human‑capital services, the sale should boost adjusted EBITDA margin by roughly 100‑150 bps in the first twelve months. Management has indicated that the transaction will generate a pre‑close cash proceeds of roughly $300 million, which will be used to accelerate debt repayment and fund strategic acquisitions in the middle‑market risk space. Consequently, while headline revenue guidance will likely be trimmed modestly to reflect the loss of the wealth franchise, the earnings‑per‑share (EPS) outlook is expected to stay flat or improve once the one‑time gain and cost‑savings are incorporated.

From a trading perspective, the market has already priced in a modest earnings‑impact discount (the sentiment score is neutral at 30). A short‑term dip of 2‑3 % is plausible as investors re‑adjust the revenue outlook, but the longer‑term view remains bullish: a cleaner balance sheet, higher profitability, and a clearer focus on higher‑margin segments should underpin price upside. Traders could look for buying opportunities on a pull‑back near the 50‑day moving average, especially if Aon’s guidance revision comes out ahead of expectations or if the company announces a bolt‑on acquisition that leverages the newly freed capital. Conversely, keep a tight stop just below the recent swing low (~$250) if the stock fails to break above the 20‑day EMA, which would indicate the market is still over‑reacting to the revenue loss.