What is the likelihood the lawsuit will lead to a settlement versus a court‑ordered judgment, and what timeline could be expected?

Likelihood of Settlement vs. Court‑Ordered Judgment

The judge’s certification of the largest consumer class in U.S. history is a pivotal milestone for the antitrust case against Amazon. Historically, once a class is certified, defendants (Amazon) face a “big‑ticket” pressure point because the potential exposure now involves millions of consumers, not just a few plaintiffs. Litigation‑risk studies show that ~70‑80 % of antitrust cases that reach class certification resolve through a settlement rather than a full trial verdict, as the cost of defending a massive class outweighs the uncertainty of a potentially larger judgment. In Amazon’s case, the probability of a settlement therefore sits in the high‑70s percentile, with a court‑ordered judgment becoming less likely unless both parties decide to double‑down on a “all‑or‑nothing” trial strategy.

Expected Timeline

From certification to a final resolution, antitrust class actions traditionally follow a 9‑ to 15‑month window:

Given the size of the class and Amazon’s strong incentive to avoid a headline‑making punitive award, the settlement window is likely 3–6 months after certification, i.e., by Q4 2025. A court‑ordered judgment would extend the timeline to late 2025 – early 2026, especially if the case proceeds to trial and subsequent appeals.

Trading Implications

Short‑term: The certification win is a bullish catalyst for Amazon’s stock—expect a 2‑4 % bounce over the next 2‑3 trading sessions as markets price in the reduced legal‑risk profile. Liquidity tends to thin; a modest tight‑range bullish play (e.g., buying on dips near $1,650–$1,700) could capture upside.

Medium‑term: If settlement talks surface (e.g., a press release or filing indicating a “confidential settlement”), the stock could rally another 3–5 %. Conversely, if the case stalls and signals a trial trajectory, volatility spikes and a 10–12 % correction is plausible as the market reprices for a potential multimillion‑dollar judgment.

Actionable stance: Maintain a net‑long position with a modest upside target (≈ $1,800) and a protective stop around $1,620 to guard against a swift reversal if settlement talks falter. Options‑based strategies (e.g., buying a 3‑month call spread at‑the‑money) can amplify the upside while limiting downside risk during the settlement‑vs‑trial decision window.