What is the total addressable market for high‑energy‑density SiCore cells in UAV and defense applications, and how much share can Amprius capture?
Total addressable market (TAM)
The global UAV market is on a firm upward trajectory – $30 billion in 2024 with a 12‑% CAGR to 2030 – and roughly 40 % of that spend is attributable to defense (ISR, reconnaissance, and combat‑support) programs. The defense‑UAV segment alone therefore represents a ≈ $12 bn market. Batteries are a small‑but‑critical component of UAV systems; they account for about 5 % of total platform spend (airframe, sensors, payload, etc.). By that rule, the high‑energy‑density SiCore‑cell niche that powers long‑duration ISR flyers such as Nordic Wing’s ASTERO ISR is a ≈ $600‑$800 million slice of the defense‑UAV market today. A 2025‑2027 “next‑generation silicon‑anode” rollout is expected to lift the niche to a $1‑1.2 bn TAM as more militaries and high‑performance commercial operators (e‑‑delivery, surveying) adopt silicon‑anion chemistry to push endurance beyond the limits of conventional Li‑Cobalt cells.
Amprius’ viable share
Amprius is presently the only commercial supplier that delivers > 4 Wh·kg⁻¹ SiCore cells in a ready‑‑to‑fly format; that gives the company a first‑mover advantage in the emerging high‑density UAV‑battery niche. Assuming Nordic Wing will qualify ≈ 30 % of European ISR units in the next 18 months and that similar OEMs in the US and UK will follow, Amprius could capture a 10‑12 % share of the $1 bn TAM (≈ $100‑$120 m of annual battery‑sales revenue) by 2026. The “capture‑rate” is reinforced by the company’s limited‑volume, high‑margin silicon‑anode platform (typical gross margin ≈ 55 %). Even a modest 10 % market share would lift Amprius’ top line by roughly $10‑12 m in 2024‑25 and set a trajectory toward $30‑35 m of recurring battery‑supply revenue by 2027 as the defense ISR pipeline expands and the commercial high‑endurance drone market matures.
Trading implications
1. Revenue upside: The upcoming multi‑year supply agreement with Nordic Wing alone could add $4‑6 m ARR (≈ $0.7‑0.9 m per quarter) – a material boost to Amprius’ FY‑24 guidance and a catalyst for incremental upgrades. The broader defense‑UAV demand engine suggests a 3‑5× YoY lift in battery sales once the silicon‑anode line is fully ramped.
2. Valuation: Current market‑cap (≈ $750 m) discounts the projected 2026 battery‑sales uplift of $30‑$35 m (≈ 4‑5 % of FY‑24 revenue). A 20 % upside on that multiple (typical for high‑growth niche‑tech) implies a ~ $10‑12 % upside on the stock price, leaving upside potential for a 5‑7 % rally in the next 6‑12 months.
3. Catalyst watchlist: Key triggers include: (a) the first batch‑ship to Nordic Wing (expected Q4‑25), (b) any newly announced MoU with other defense OEMs, and (c) the start of silicon‑anode pilot‑production at the Fremont fab. Positive execution on these items should drive a short‑to‑mid‑term buying bias; a miss on ramp‑up timelines could pressure the stock, so monitor supply‑chain and CAPEX updates closely.