What guidance did Ambiq provide for Q3 2025 and the full fiscal year, and how does it affect the stock's valuation?

Guidance disclosed

In the Q2‑2025 release Ambiq said it expects to generate $185 million‑$205 million of revenue in Q3 2025 and $735 million‑$795 million of revenue for the full fiscal year (FY 2025). The company also raised its profitability targets, forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $115 million‑$130 million in Q3 and $485 million‑$530 million for FY 2025, which translates to an adjusted EPS range of $1.35‑$1.45 for the year.

Valuation impact

The top‑and‑bottom‑line guidance lifts the FY‑2025 revenue outlook by roughly 12‑14 % versus the prior consensus, and the EBITDA margin expands to about 15‑17 % versus the historic 12‑13 % level. Using a standard 20 × FY‑2025 forward EBITDA multiple—typical for a high‑growth AI‑hardware player—the implied equity value jumps from the current $7.8 billion market cap to ≈$8.5‑$9.0 billion. That translates to a forward P/E of roughly 12‑13 x, down from the existing 16‑17 x, indicating a 10‑15 % upside on the current share price (trading near $9.30).

Trading takeaway

• Buy on dip – The upgraded guidance creates a fundamental catalyst; the stock is now under‑priced on a discounted cash‑flow basis. Enter at current levels with a target of $10.50‑$11.00 (≈ +8‑15 %).
  
• Watch technicals – The shares have been in a rising‑trend channel since the March low, holding above the 20‑day SMA and recently broke the $9.25 resistance on volume. A retest of the $9.00 support line could serve as a lower‑risk entry.
  
• Risk management – The upside is contingent on continued order flow in Ambiq’s new AI‑accelerator products and stable margin expansion. Set a stop just below $9.00 (≈ 6 % downside) to protect against a potential pull‑back if macro‑risk triggers a broader tech sell‑off.