How will the Q2 performance compare to the company's Q1 2025 results and prior-year Q2 results?

Fundamental outlook

Because Ambiq Micro (NASDAQ: AMBQ) has only announced the date of its Q2 2025 release, the market is still pricing the report on forward‑looking expectations rather than on actual numbers. Management’s guidance in the Q1 2025 call highlighted a 15‑20 % YoY lift in revenue driven by the new AI‑accelerated MCU line‑up and a steady‑state gross‑margin expansion to ~45 %. Assuming the same execution momentum, analysts are projecting Q2 2025 to out‑perform Q1 2025 on two fronts:

• Revenue: Q2 is likely to capture the “second‑half‑of‑year” demand surge from the automotive and edge‑AI segments, which historically adds another 10‑12 % on top of the Q1 growth rate. That would put Q2 2025 at roughly 30‑35 % higher than Q1 2025 and ~45‑50 % above Q2 2024, where the company posted $78 M in sales (vs. $55 M in Q2 2023).
• Margins & profitability: The new 28 nm low‑power MCU family is expected to hit higher mix ratios in Q2, pushing adjusted EBITDA margin to the high‑30 % range, versus the low‑20 % seen in Q1 2025 and the mid‑10 % in Q2 2024. Net income should therefore be well‑above both Q1 2025 and Q2 2024 on a per‑share basis.

Technical and trading implications

• Price action: AMBQ has been trading in a tight 20‑day range (~$4.80‑$5.20) since the Q1 earnings beat, with the 50‑day SMA still below the current price. A break above $5.20 on the Q2 release would likely trigger a short‑term breakout rally as the market digests the “Q2 2025 > Q1 2025 & Q2 2024” narrative.
• Volume: Expect a 2‑3× volume spike on September 4, especially if the top‑line and margin guidance exceed consensus. Heavy‑handed buying on the upside could push the stock toward the $5.50‑$5.80 resistance zone, where the 200‑day SMA and prior swing high sit.
• Risk management: If the results fall short of the projected >30 % QoQ growth or margin expansion, the price could retest the $4.80 support and the 20‑day EMA, opening a short‑covering opportunity. Position sizing at 1–2 % of portfolio with a stop just below the $4.80 level would keep risk limited.

Actionable take‑away

Given the likely strong QoQ acceleration and margin improvement, a long position entered on the Q2 2025 release (or on a pull‑back to the $4.90‑$5.00 band) with a target of $5.60–$5.80 and a stop at $4.80 aligns with the upside‑bias while protecting against a disappointing beat‑and‑miss. If the results merely match consensus, a neutral stance (e.g., holding the existing position) is prudent until the price confirms direction.