How does Applied Materialsâ current quarter guidance compare to its peers in the semiconductor equipment sector?
AppliedâŻMaterials (AMAT) guided for a âlightâ currentâquarter, signaling revenue growth in the lowâsingleâdigit range and EPS that sits below the consensus Street forecasts. By comparison, its closest peers in the semiconductorâequipment universeâLam Research, KLAâTomasi, ASML and TokyoâŻElectronâhave all been posting guidance that implies midâsingleâdigit to lowâdoubleâdigit growth, with several firms (notably Lam and ASML) actually raising their outlooks despite the same macro backdrop. The consensus sector median for Qâcurrent revenue growth is roughly 4â5âŻ%, while AMATâs own guidance hovers around 1â2âŻ%, leaving the company 2â3âŻpercentage points under the peer average and well below the 4â6âŻ% range that analysts currently price into the broader equipment index.
Technically, AMATâs 10âŻ% postâmarket drop has broken the 50âday moving average and opened a gapâdown that now places the stock near the lower end of its recent consolidation range (around $115â$120). Volume spikes on the downside suggest heightened shortâinterest, and the price is testing a key support level near the 200âday MA (~$108). Given the weaker guidance relative to peers and the broader sectorâs stillâpositive earnings momentum, the bias remains shortâtoâneutral. Traders could look to sell the rally on any shortâterm bounce, targeting a move back to $105â$108, while keeping an eye on the upcoming earnings releaseâif AMAT beats its light forecast, a quick reversal to the upside could be viable for a contrarian long. Risk management should include a stop just above the 50âday MA (~$120) to limit exposure if macro sentiment improves or the sector rallies on new fabâcapacity news.