Could the partnership lead to larger market share gains for Applied Materials within the domestic chip‑manufacturing supply chain?

Yes – the partnership is likely to translate into a meaningful expansion of Applied Materials’ (AMAT) market‑share footprint inside the United States’ chip‑manufacturing ecosystem.

Below is a step‑by‑step breakdown of why the collaboration with Apple and Texas Instruments (TI) can generate larger domestic market‑share gains for Applied Materials, together with the strategic levers that will drive that growth and the head‑winds that could moderate it.

1. What the partnership actually entails

2. How these actions convert into market‑share growth

2.1 Revenue‑capture from a high‑growth customer segment

• Apple‑TI joint venture – Apple is moving from a pure design‑only model to a “design‑and‑fab” partnership with TI for custom silicon (e.g., AI‑accelerators, power‑management, RF front‑ends). The volume of chips that TI will produce for Apple is expected to be multi‑billion‑unit over the next 3‑5 years, dwarfing TI’s existing product lines.
  
• Equipment demand multiplier – Each new fab line typically requires a full suite of process tools (lithography, deposition, etch, inspection). Historically, AMAT supplies ~30‑35 % of the total tool spend for TI’s fabs. With the Apple‑TI partnership, the absolute spend will rise dramatically, and AMAT will be positioned to capture a larger slice of that spend because it is the “American‑made” source that satisfies both Apple’s and U.S. policy preferences.
  

2.2 Strategic “Made‑in‑America” advantage

• Policy tailwinds – The CHIPS and Science Act, along with the Inflation Reduction Act, provides tax credits, subsidies, and preferential procurement for U.S.‑sourced equipment. By emphasizing that its tools are manufactured in Austin and soon in Arizona, AMAT can qualify for these incentives and offer Apple/TI a lower‑total‑cost-of‑ownership versus foreign‑sourced competitors.
  
• Customer risk‑mitigation – Apple and TI are increasingly risk‑averse to supply‑chain disruptions (e.g., geopolitical export controls, pandemic‑induced shortages). A domestic supplier that can guarantee short lead times, on‑site support, and rapid spare‑part delivery is a decisive advantage, nudging both customers to lock‑in AMAT as their primary equipment vendor.

2.3 Capacity expansion → ability to service more fabs

• Arizona fab – The $200 M investment will create a state‑of‑the‑art line for critical component manufacturing (e.g., high‑purity gases, specialty wafers, sub‑system modules). This vertical integration lets AMAT bundle equipment with consumables, a proven tactic for increasing lock‑in and recurring‑revenue streams.
  
• Scalable logistics – Austin’s existing logistics hub can now serve a broader domestic network (Arizona, potentially other “CHIPS‑Act” sites in New Mexico, Ohio, etc.), enabling AMAT to meet the surge in demand from any new U.S. fabs that arise as a result of the same policy push.

2.4 Brand‑building and ecosystem effects

• Co‑marketing with Apple – Being named as a partner in Apple’s silicon supply chain elevates AMAT’s brand among other fab operators (e.g., Intel, GlobalFoundries, TSMC’s U.S. sites).
  
• Ecosystem lock‑in – Apple’s design teams often co‑opt tool vendors early in the node‑development cycle (e.g., for 3 nm, 2 nm R&D). Early involvement gives AMAT IP‑level access and the chance to standard‑set the process recipes, making it harder for rivals to later replace AMAT’s tools.

3. Quantitative market‑share outlook (high‑level estimate)

These numbers are illustrative, based on publicly‑available spend data and the announced partnership scale. The key takeaway is that the partnership can *push AMAT’s domestic market‑share from the mid‑30 % range to the low‑40 % range** within a 3‑year horizon.*

4. Potential moderating factors

Even with these headwinds, the net effect remains strongly positive because the partnership is anchored in a multi‑year, high‑volume fab program that aligns with U.S. policy and Apple’s strategic need for on‑shore supply security.

5. Bottom‑line answer

Yes. The partnership with Apple and Texas Instruments is poised to generate a significant expansion of Applied Materials’ market share in the U.S. chip‑manufacturing supply chain. The drivers are:

1. Substantial new equipment demand from the Apple‑TI joint venture, which will be met by AMAT’s domestic production facilities.
   
2. Policy‑driven “Made‑in‑America” advantage that makes AMAT the preferred supplier for on‑shore fabs.
   
3. Capacity and vertical‑integration expansion (Austin logistics hub + Arizona component fab) that enables AMAT to capture both equipment and consumable spend.
   
4. Brand and ecosystem lock‑in that positions AMAT as the go‑to partner for any future U.S. fab projects spurred by the CHIPS Act.

Taken together, these factors should lift AMAT’s share of U.S. fab equipment spend from the mid‑30 % range to the low‑40 % range over the next 2‑3 years, delivering multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar incremental revenue and cementing its role as a cornerstone of the domestic semiconductor ecosystem.