What guidance did management provide for full‑year 2025 revenue, earnings, and cash flow, and how does it align with consensus estimates?

Management guidance

• Revenue: Alvotech said it expects full‑year 2025 net sales in the $1.2 billion‑$1.3 billion range.
  
• Earnings: Adjusted EBITDA (a proxy for earnings) is projected at $300 million‑$350 million for the year.
  
• Cash‑flow: Operating cash‑flow is forecasted to be $400 million‑$450 million.

Comparison with consensus

Street analysts have been modelling FY‑2025 revenue of roughly $1.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $330 million and cash‑flow of $425 million. Alvotech’s guidance therefore sits squarely within the consensus median and on the higher end of the range for earnings and cash‑flow, implying a modest upside to the “average” view.

Trading implications

• Long‑biased positioning: The guidance is comfortably in line with, or slightly above, consensus, supporting a buy‑or add‑to stance on the stock, especially given the company’s expanding biosimilar pipeline and recent regulatory milestones.
  
• Technical confirmation: Alvotech is currently trading near its 50‑day moving average and has broken above a short‑term resistance band on the daily chart, suggesting momentum could carry the price higher if the market digests the upbeat outlook.
  
• Risk considerations: The upside is capped unless the company exceeds the top‑end of its guidance (e.g., >$1.3 billion sales). Watch for any forward‑looking commentary on launch timelines or pricing pressures that could tighten the guidance range and trigger a pull‑back.
  

Actionable take‑away: With guidance matching consensus and a technically bullish set‑up, a moderate‑sized long position (or a continuation of existing holdings) is justified, while keeping a stop just below the recent low‑range (~$1.10) to protect against any unexpected pipeline setbacks.