Will the new capital raise cause dilution for existing shareholders, and how is that reflected in the post‑offering share count?
Answer to the question
Yes – the $1.5 billion registered direct offering and simultaneous private placement will increase the total number of ALTS shares outstanding, which is inherently dilutive to existing shareholders. The company will issue a sizable block of new shares to raise the capital, so the post‑offering share count will be higher than the pre‑offering count, effectively spreading each existing shareholder’s ownership over a larger pool of equity. The offering prospectus (or Form 8‑A) usually discloses the exact number of shares issued and the resulting post‑offering share count; you’ll see a jump from the current outstanding shares (approximately X million) to a higher figure (roughly X + Y million) once the transaction closes.
Trading implications
- Short‑term pressure: The market will price‑in the dilution risk immediately, so expect a modest‑to‑moderate sell‑off on the day of the announcement and on the first trading day after the closing. Look for increased volatility and potentially a 2‑4 % dip as investors adjust the equity‑value model for the larger share base.
- Long‑term outlook: If the capital is deployed efficiently—e.g., expanding the crypto‑fintech platform, adding high‑margin merchant solutions, or accelerating product roll‑outs—the dilution could be offset by higher earnings per share (EPS) growth in the medium‑term. Watch for subsequent guidance from the newly appointed chairman and board additions (Witkoff, Trump) that may signal an accelerated growth plan. Traders could consider a buy‑the‑dip if the stock breaks below the key 20‑day moving average with solid volume, but keep a stop‑loss near the pre‑announcement low to manage the dilution‑related downside risk.