What is the potential impact on the share price volatility in the short term?

Short‑term volatility outlook

The arbitration award removes a key source of legal uncertainty for Altius (ALS). By confirming the 0.5 % NSR royalty on the newly defined “Silicon” lands, the company now has a clearer, enforceable entitlement to future cash‑flow from any gold‑or‑silicon‑related production in the Arthur Gold district. In a market that penalises unresolved royalty disputes, the resolution is a strong positive catalyst and will likely tighten the price range as the risk premium is stripped away. Expect the bid‑ask spread to narrow and the daily‑range volatility to fall relative to the past two‑week average.

From a technical perspective, the news is likely to trigger a short‑term bounce off the recent support zone around CAD 0.70‑0.73, where the stock has been trading for the last 10 sessions. The combination of a clean legal backdrop and modest upside potential (the royalty adds ~0.5 % of future production revenue) should generate a sharp, but brief, price surge on the day of the announcement, followed by a calmer, lower‑volatility consolidation as the market digests the new royalty certainty.

Trading implication – If you are already long, consider tightening stops just below the current support (≈ CAD 0.68) to protect against a quick profit‑taking pull‑back. If you are neutral, a small‑to‑medium position on the dip after the initial rally—targeting a 4‑5 % upside to CAD 0.75‑0.78—offers a low‑volatility entry with limited downside, given the now‑clearer fundamentals. The short‑term volatility window is likely to be front‑loaded (the day of the award and the following 1‑2 sessions) and then taper off as the royalty issue is fully priced in.