What is the anticipated impact of the new data on Alnylam's long‑term revenue growth and profitability outlook?

Fundamental outlook

The upcoming ESC 2025 data read‑out signals a potential “first‑in‑class” RNAi therapy for hypertension – a $200 bn+ global market – and an expansion of the already‑approved ATTR product (patisiran). If the data confirm a meaningful blood‑pressure reduction with a favorable safety profile, Alnylam could move the hypertension program from a niche, late‑stage asset into a blockbuster franchise. Even a modest market capture (5‑10 % of the hypertension market) would translate into $1–2 bn of annual sales, roughly tripling the company’s current non‑ATTR revenue base. The ATTR indication, already generating ~ $300 m, would be bolstered by any new formulation or earlier‑line indication, further lifting top‑line growth. Over the next 3‑5 years, the combined pipeline could lift total projected revenue from the current ~ $1.2 bn to $3–4 bn, delivering a clear upward shift in the long‑term growth trajectory.

Profitability implications

RNAi products are high‑margin, low‑cost‑of‑goods biologics (gross margins > 80 %). Adding a hypertension product – likely priced in line with premium oral antihypertensives but with a differentiated mechanism – would improve the overall gross‑margin profile and drive operating leverage. Assuming a 30 % operating‑margin uplift from the new hypertension sales, Alnylam’s adjusted EBITDA could rise from the current ~ $250 m to $600‑$800 m by 2028, narrowing the gap to profitability and supporting a higher forward‑PE multiple relative to peers.

Trading and technical considerations

The stock has been in a tight 20‑day range around $115–$125, with the 50‑day SMA at $118 and the 200‑day SMA at $112, indicating a breakout potential. The positive sentiment (70) and the upcoming data release create a classic “catalyst‑driven” scenario. A short‑term trade could involve buying on any pull‑back toward the 50‑day SMA ahead of the ESC presentation, targeting a 10‑12 % upside if the data are favorable (price ~ $130). Conversely, a weak read‑out would likely trigger a 8‑10 % downside to the 50‑day SMA. Position sizing with a stop just below the 50‑day SMA (~$115) balances risk while keeping exposure to the long‑term upside from the expanded revenue base.