When is the merger expected to close and what regulatory or financing risks could impact the timeline?
Expected closing date
Aker Horizons’ merger‑by‑share was announced on 9 May 2025 and the company now expects the transaction to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2025 (around 31 December 2025), subject to the usual shareholder and regulatory approvals.
Key regulatory & financing risks that could shift the timetable
| Risk | Why it matters | Potential impact on timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory clearance (Norwegian Competition Authority & possibly EU/US cross‑border reviews) | The deal combines two large offshore‑energy‑service platforms; antitrust concerns could arise, especially around market‑share in the North‑Sea subsea sector. | A prolonged review could push the signing date into early 2026, adding weeks to the closing window and creating short‑term downside pressure on Aker’s stock. |
| Financing covenant & debt market conditions | The merger will be funded partly through a refinancing of AKH HoldCo’s existing term loan and a new senior‑secured bridge facility. A tightening of credit spreads or a downgrade of the parent’s credit rating would increase borrowing costs or force a repricing of the bridge loan. | If the bridge facility can’t be drawn down on schedule, the closing could be delayed by a month or more; any funding shortfall would likely trigger a price correction in Aker’s equity. |
| Share‑holder approval thresholds | The deal requires a 75 % –plus‑one‑shareholder‑support vote. Large institutional holders (e.g., pension funds) may request additional information or pricing adjustments. | Protracted negotiations with key holders could extend the closing deadline beyond the Q4 target, putting upward pressure on the spread between the announced exchange ratio and market prices. |
Trading implications
- Current price bias: With the Q4 2025 closing window still in play but the above risks unresolved, the market is pricing in roughly a 5‑7 % upside to the announced exchange ratio. This leaves a moderate upside on the long side and a short‑side pull‑back risk if a regulator or finance hurdle surfaces.
- Actionable view: Maintain a neutral‑to‑bullish stance on Aker Horizons (AKER) while keeping a tight stop‑loss (≈ 3‑4 % below the current level) to guard against a sudden regulatory delay announcement. Watch for the next SEC/Finanstilsynet filing (expected mid‑September 2025) and any updates on the credit‑facility covenant—these will be the first triggers that could move the timeline forward or backward.