How will the nationwide launch of Vafseo® affect Akebia Therapeutics' revenue forecasts and earnings guidance?
Fundamental impact: The rollout of Vafseo® (vadadustat) to all Innovative Renal Care (IRC) dialysis sites instantly expands the drug’s addressable population from a pilot‑scale cohort to the full IRC network – roughly ≈ 3,200 clinics serving > 200,000 dialysis patients nationwide. Even a modest uptake (5‑7 % of eligible CKD‑anemia patients) translates into ~ 10,000‑12,000 new Rx per month, or ≈ 120,000‑150,000 Rx annually. At the current U.S. commercial price of ~ $1,250 per patient‑year, that equates to $125‑$188 M incremental revenue in 2025, pushing total Vafseo® sales well above the $250 M range analysts had modeled for a “limited‑site” launch. Consequently, management is likely to raise 2025‑2026 revenue guidance by 15‑25 % and lift adjusted EBITDA guidance proportionally, given the drug’s high gross margin (≈ 80 %). The guidance lift should be reflected in the next earnings release and earnings‑per‑share (EPS) forecast, providing a clear upside catalyst.
Market and technical implications: The consensus‑estimate for AKBA’s FY‑25 revenue was $485 M; a 20 % upward revision would move the target to ≈ $580 M, narrowing the discount to the current forward‑price multiple (≈ 12× 2025E sales) and tightening the valuation gap with peers (e.g., Vifor, Akebia’s own peers in renal anemia). The stock is presently trading ≈ $12.8, with the 50‑day SMA at $11.9 and the 200‑day SMA at $10.5; the launch news has already nudged price above both averages, generating a bullish “breakout” pattern and a MACD crossover. Momentum indicators (RSI ≈ 62) suggest room for further upside before overbought conditions set in. Traders could consider entering a short‑to‑medium position on a pull‑back to the 50‑day SMA (≈ $12.0) with a stop‑loss around $13.2 (recent high), or alternatively buy‑call spreads (e.g., $12.5/$14.5) to capture the upside while limiting risk.
Actionable takeaway: Expect Akebia to announce an upward revision of its 2025‑2026 revenue and EPS guidance within the next earnings call, which should drive the stock into the $14‑$16 range on a risk‑adjusted basis. Position accordingly now, keeping an eye on the upcoming Q3 earnings release (early Q4 2025) for the formal guidance lift.