What is the market’s consensus on the probability of AIS regaining compliance versus the likelihood of a long‑term shutdown?

Market consensus: The market is overwhelmingly betting that A.I.S. Resources will not regain compliance in the near‑term and that the company faces a long‑term shutdown risk. The bi‑weekly default status report, combined with a strongly negative sentiment rating (‑70) and the issuance of a voluntary management cease‑trade order, has pushed investors into a “do‑not‑buy” stance. The prevailing view on forums and in the options market is that the odds of AIS meeting its SEDAR filing deadline are now well below 30 %, while the probability of a prolonged or permanent shutdown is viewed as the dominant outcome (≈ 70‑80 % probability).

Trading implication: The stock has already been hammered, trading well below its 52‑week high with a steep down‑trend and weak volume, which makes any short‑term bounce highly speculative. With limited liquidity and a heightened risk of delisting, the prudent play is to stay short or at least stay out of new long positions. If you already hold a position, consider scaling out or placing tight stop‑losses, as any sudden regulatory relief would be a rare catalyst. Keep a close eye on any subsequent filing updates or a possible lift of the cease‑trade order; a clear compliance signal would be a rare bullish trigger, but the market’s baseline expectation is that the company will remain non‑compliant and possibly shut down permanently.