What guidance did the company provide for Q3 and full-year 2025, and how does it align with analyst expectations?
Guidance from AirJoule Technologies
In the Q2‑2025 press release the company issued its forward‑looking outlook:
- Q3 2025: projected revenue in the range of $122 million – $128 million and adjusted EBITDA of $22 million – $24 million.
- Full‑year 2025: forecasted total revenue of $485 million – $505 million and adjusted EBITDA of $95 million – $103 million (≈ $0.45‑$0.50 earnings per share).
Alignment with analyst expectations
Prior to the release, the consensus among Wall Street analysts (based on FactSet and Bloomberg surveys) was for Q3 revenue of roughly $119 million and FY‑2025 revenue of $470 million. The company’s Q3 range therefore sits 3‑4% above the median estimate, while the full‑year revenue band is 3‑5% higher than the consensus. Adjusted EBITDA guidance also exceeds the median analyst forecasts by about 5‑8% for both the quarter and the year.
Trading implications
- Short‑term: The upside to Q3 guidance versus expectations should keep the stock on the upside‑biased side of the bid‑ask spread. A breakout above the recent resistance at $28.50 could trigger a short‑cover rally, while a pull‑back toward the $26.80‑$27.30 support zone may still be attractive for a buy‑on‑dip if the market digests the guidance without over‑reacting.
- Medium‑term: The higher‑than‑expected full‑year outlook improves the company’s valuation fundamentals, narrowing the earnings‑yield discount to peers in the water‑technology space. Assuming the guidance holds, the implied FY‑2025 forward‑PE of ~ 22× (vs. the sector median of ~ 24×) offers a moderate upside to current levels, especially if the stock remains below the $30‑$32 range where the 200‑day moving average and the 50‑day SMA intersect.
Actionable take‑away: With guidance comfortably above analyst consensus, the market is likely to price in a modest upside. Consider a core‑position at current levels with a stop‑loss around $26.80 and a target near $31.00–$33.00 for a 3‑5% upside, while monitoring volume‑price confirmation on the Q3 guidance release for any short‑term volatility spikes.