What is the outlook for the upcoming third quarter and full-year 2025 guidance given the current performance trends?

Fundamental outlook: Air Industries’ Q2 results show a clear head‑wind. Net sales slipped to $12.7 m, a 6.7 % drop YoY, while gross profit plunged 23 % to $2.0 m, indicating pricing pressure or higher component‐cost inputs that are not being passed on to customers. The aerospace‑defense market is still tightening as prime contractors defer or re‑scope programs amid lingering supply‑chain constraints and reduced defense spending growth forecasts for 2025. Unless the company can secure additional contracts or improve mix toward higher‑margin assemblies, the momentum suggests that Q3 sales will likely remain flat to modestly lower (‑2 % to ‑5 %) and full‑year 2025 revenue could end up 5‑7 % below the prior‑year level. Expect the management team to lower its FY‑2025 guidance, perhaps trimming revenue guidance by $2‑3 m and gross‑margin expectations by 1–2 percentage points.

Technical and trading implications: The stock has broken below its 20‑day SMA and is now trading near the lower Bollinger‑Band, with the RSI hovering around 38, indicating bearish momentum but still some room before oversold territory. Volume has been above average on downside moves, confirming seller aggression. In the short run, a tactical short position or a protective put spread targeting the $1.80–$1.85 support zone (current price ≈ $2.10) could capture further downside if Q3 guidance comes in weaker than consensus. Conversely, a contrarian “buy‑the‑dip” at or below the $1.70 level could be justified only if the company announces a material new contract or cost‑reduction initiative that materially lifts gross margins. Keep stop‑losses tight (≈ 5 % above entry for longs, 5 % below for shorts) and monitor the earnings call for any upward revisions to the FY‑2025 outlook or margin recovery plans.