The merger terms price Air Lease’s shares at a flat $65 cash per share. At the time of the announcement the NY‑NYSE‑listed stock was trading in the $62‑$64 range (the close on the news‑day was roughly $63.1). Thus the offer represents a ~5%‑8% premium to the prevailing market price, which is modest by M&A standards and leaves limited upside for long‑only buyers once the deal gains certainty.
From a valuation standpoint, Air Lease has roughly 130 million shares outstanding. Multiplying the $65 cash price by that count gives an implied equity value of about $8.5 billion. If you apply the same multiple to the company’s FY‑2024 EV/EBITDA (~9‑10×) and its balance‑sheet cash, the transaction still looks slightly richer than the market’s current forward‑looking pricing, but not dramatically out of line.
Trading implications – the stock will likely trade close to the $65 floor as the deal moves toward closing, with any price deviation reflecting either discount‑rate speculation or financing concerns. If the market is still below $65, a short‑term buy‑on‑dip strategy can capture the pending premium, but the upside is capped. Conversely, if the stock has already risen above $65 (e.g., on a speculative premium), a flattening or light‑short position may be justified, as the deal price sets a ceiling; any upside beyond $65 would be nullified when the deal consummates.
Bottom line: the $65 cash offer is a modest premium to the current $62‑$64 price, implying an $8.5 bn equity valuation. Expect the share price to gravitate toward $65 as the transaction closes—trade around the offer level, buying only if the price slips below $65 and trimming or shorting if it trades markedly above the cash price.*