Will the stock price likely drop by an amount roughly equal to the dividend on the ex‑dividend date?

Short answer: Yes – in a normal, liquid market the price will normally fall by roughly the dividend amount on the ex‑dividend date, though the exact size of the move can be nudged by broader market sentiment, the company’s liquidity profile and the “special” nature of the payout.

Why it matters: When a stock goes ex‑dividend the right to receive the upcoming cash distribution detaches from the share. Theoretically the share’s value is reduced by the cash outflow, so the price should open lower by the per‑share dividend. Jianpu’s dividend is a special cash payment rather than a recurring quarterly payout, which means the market may price‑in the cash outflow more cleanly than a regular dividend that is already baked into expectations. However, the adjustment can be softened or amplified by a few factors:

• Liquidity & float: AIJTY trades on the OTCQB and typically has modest daily volume. In thinly‑traded stocks the price can deviate from the “textbook” drop because a single large order can move the market.
  
• Overall market direction: If the broader market or the China‑tech sector is rallying on the same day, the drop may be partially offset by bullish pressure; conversely, a market sell‑off can deepen the decline.
  
• Tax considerations & dividend‑capture strategies: Some investors will sell before* the ex‑date to avoid the cash‑taxable event, creating pre‑ex‑date buying pressure that can lead to a “price‑recovery” after the dividend is paid.
  

Trading implication: Assuming normal conditions, expect the opening price on September 9 to be roughly the previous close minus the dividend per share. If you are dividend‑seeking, consider buying before the record date (September 8) to capture the payout, but be prepared for a modest price correction on the ex‑date. If you are short‑biased or want to avoid the cash outflow, a short position or a put spread entered just before the ex‑date can profit from the anticipated dip, while a long position taken after the ex‑date can capture the post‑adjustment price at a lower level. Keep an eye on overall market momentum and AIJTY’s volume to gauge whether the move will be a clean, dividend‑sized slide or will be skewed by broader price dynamics.