How will the loss of Walmart to Klarna impact AFRM's revenue growth and market share outlook?

Fundamental view:

The Walmart‑Klarna win does remove one of the larger “brick‑and‑mortar” partners from Affirm’s pipeline, but the impact on top‑line growth is limited. Walmart’s BNPL volume was a modest slice of total merchant spend and accounted for a relatively low proportion of FY‑23 revenue (roughly 3‑4 %). CEO Max Levchin emphasized that consumer demand remains “strong” and that the company is expanding its merchant base across grocery, health‑care and DTC brands, while its own “Buy‑Now‑Pay‑Later” (BNPL) and “Buy‑Now‑Pay‑Later‑as‑a‑Service” (BNaaS) offerings are scaling faster than the loss. As a result, the consensus revenue guidance for FY‑24 (≈ + 30 % YoY) is unchanged, and the market has already priced in the Walmart hit. In practice, the loss will shave a few points off the growth rate, but it is unlikely to erode the broader trajectory or the company’s ability to capture a larger share of the overall BNPL market, which is still under‑penetrated in the U.S.

Market‑share & trading implications:

Klarna’s acquisition of Walmart’s BNPL volume may shift a portion of the “large‑ticket” share‑of‑wallet to a competitor, but Affirm’s competitive advantage lies in its higher‑margin “merchant‑financing” model and its growing SaaS‑style BNaaS platform, which can be sold to any retailer at a lower cost of integration. This diversification cushions market‑share loss and even positions Affirm to win back volume from merchants that favor a more data‑rich, flexible partner. Technically, the stock jumped ~15 % on the earnings beat, breaking above the 50‑day EMA and holding near its recent high. RSI is now in the 70‑75 zone, suggesting a short‑term overbought condition, but the bullish momentum and strong earnings narrative give room for a pull‑back and re‑entry.

Actionable take‑away:

For traders, the key risk is a potential earnings revision if Walmart’s volume proves more material than consensus assumed. Until such data surfaces, the upside‑bias remains intact: consider buying on a modest pull‑back (e.g., near the 20‑day EMA) with a stop just below the recent low (~$XX), or hold existing long positions with a target at the next resistance level (~$YY). Keep an eye on any forward‑looking commentary about new merchant wins or BNaaS adoption rates, as those will be the primary drivers of future revenue growth and market‑share expansion.