How does ACRE's Q2 2025 performance compare to the same quarter in 2024 and to analysts' expectations? | ACRE (Aug 06, 2025) | Candlesense
ACRE

How does ACRE's Q2 2025 performance compare to the same quarter in 2024 and to analysts' expectations?

Answer

Based on the press‑release you provided, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) reported the following for the second quarter of 2025:

Metric Q2 2025 Result
GAAP net income (loss) $(11.0) million (‑$0.20 per diluted share)
Distributable earnings (loss) $(27.9) million (‑$0.51 per diluted share)

These figures tell us how the company performed in Q2 2025, but the release does not include:

  1. Q2 2024 results (i.e., the same quarter a year earlier).
  2. Analyst consensus expectations for Q2 2025 (e.g., expected earnings per share, revenue, or cash‑flow forecasts).

Because those two pieces of information are missing, we cannot directly answer the question:

  • “How does ACRE’s Q2 2025 performance compare to the same quarter in 2024?” – We would need the Q2 2024 GAAP net income (or loss) and Distributable earnings figures to calculate the year‑over‑year change.
  • “How does it compare to analysts’ expectations?” – We would need the consensus estimate (e.g., from Bloomberg, FactSet, Refinitiv, or other analyst surveys) for GAAP EPS or Distributable earnings for Q2 2025.

What to Do Next

To provide the comprehensive comparison you’re looking for, you (or an analyst) would need to retrieve the following data points:

Data Needed Where to Find It
Q2 2024 GAAP net income (loss) and Distributable earnings – the prior‑year quarter results. ACRE’s FY 2024 earnings release (typically posted on the company’s investor‑relations website) or historical SEC filings (e.g., Form 10‑Q for Q2 2024).
Consensus analyst estimates for Q2 2025 – expected GAAP EPS, Distributable earnings, revenue, or other key metrics. Financial data providers (Bloomberg, FactSet, Thomson Reuters, S&P Capital IQ) or the “Earnings Outlook” section of the press release, if it includes a “forecast vs. estimate” table.

Once those numbers are obtained, the comparison can be calculated as follows:

  1. Year‑over‑Year (YoY) Change

    • GAAP net income (loss) YoY: Q2 2025 GAAP net income – Q2 2024 GAAP net income.
    • Distributable earnings YoY: Q2 2025 Distributable earnings – Q2 2024 Distributable earnings.
    • Convert the differences to percentages to express the YoY growth (or decline).

  2. Performance vs. Analyst Expectations

    • Earnings Surprise: Actual GAAP EPS (‑$0.20) – Consensus GAAP EPS estimate.
    • Distributable Earnings Surprise: Actual Distributable EPS (‑$0.51) – Consensus Distributable EPS estimate.
    • Positive surprises indicate the company beat expectations; negative surprises indicate it missed.

  3. Contextual Commentary

    • Discuss any notable drivers (e.g., higher interest rates, property‑level cash‑flow constraints, loan‑loss provisions) that the company highlighted for the quarter.
    • Compare the magnitude of the surprise to historical patterns (e.g., “This is the largest quarterly loss since Q3 2022”).
    • Note any forward‑looking guidance the company gave (e.g., outlook for Q3 2025 or FY 2025) and how that aligns with analyst forecasts.

Sample Structure (once data is available)

Year‑over‑Year Comparison

- GAAP net income: ACRE posted a GAAP loss of $11 million in Q2 2025 versus a GAAP profit of $X million in Q2 2024, representing a Y% decline (or swing from profit to loss).

- Distributable earnings: Distributable earnings fell from $A million in Q2 2024 to $‑27.9 million in Q2 2025, a Z% drop.

Analyst Expectation Comparison

- GAAP EPS: Analysts expected $B per share; the actual ‑$0.20 per share was C cents below the consensus, resulting in a D% miss.

- Distributable EPS: Consensus was $E per share; the reported ‑$0.51 per share missed by F cents, a G% shortfall.

Interpretation

- The miss reflects (e.g., higher loan‑loss provisions, weaker cash‑flow from the portfolio, or macro‑economic headwinds).

- The company’s outlook for the remainder of 2025 suggests (e.g., continued pressure on net income, but potential stabilization of cash‑flow generation).

Bottom line: With only the Q2 2025 results available in the excerpt, we cannot complete the requested comparison. Please locate the Q2 2024 results and the analyst consensus estimates for Q2 2025, then we can calculate the YoY change and the earnings surprise to fully answer your question. If you can share those numbers, I’ll be happy to produce the detailed comparative analysis right away.

Other Questions About This News

Will the company revise its guidance for the full year 2025 based on this quarter's results? How will the reported GAAP net loss of $11.0 million affect ACRE's valuation and future earnings potential? How does ACRE's loss and earnings metrics compare to peers in the specialty‑finance and commercial‑real‑estate sector? Are there any upcoming credit or interest rate pressures that could further impact ACRE's results? What market or macro‑economic factors are influencing ACRE's performance this quarter? What are the implications of the loss on the company's leverage ratio and covenant compliance? Is there any indication of potential asset disposals, write‑downs, or revaluations that contributed to the loss? What is the current status of the company's pipeline of commercial real estate assets and any expected new acquisitions? What does the negative Distributable Earnings indicate about the company's cash flow and dividend sustainability?