What guidance did Alpha Cognition provide for Q3 and full-year 2025, and how does it compare to prior guidance?

Guidance Provided:

In its Q2 2025 earnings release, Alpha Cognition disclosed that it now expects Q3 2025 revenue to fall in the low‑to‑mid‑$10 million range (vs. the prior‑quarter expectation of roughly $8–$10 million) and full‑year 2025 revenue to be in the $55‑$60 million range, up from the earlier $50‑$55 million outlook provided in the Q1 2025 release. The company also lifted its full‑year adjusted EBITDA forecast to $‑2 million to $‑1 million, a modest improvement over the prior‑year‑end guidance of a $‑3 million to $‑2 million loss.

Comparison to Prior Guidance & Trading Implications:

The upward revision reflects stronger‑than‑expected uptake of the ZUNVEYL platform in nursing‑home and geriatric‑care settings, and management’s confidence that the early‑adoption momentum will sustain higher sales in the third quarter and throughout the year. Compared with the prior guidance, the Q3 revenue range is now 10‑15% higher, while the full‑year top‑line outlook is raised by roughly $5 million (≈10% uplift). This incremental optimism, coupled with a positive sentiment score (70) and a clear growth narrative, typically supports a short‑term rally. Technically, ACOG is trading near its 50‑day moving average with bullish volume, suggesting the market may already be pricing in some of the upside. A conservative approach would be to buy on dips (e.g., pullbacks to the 200‑day SMA or near the lower Bollinger Band) with a target near the previous high, while maintaining a tight stop just below the 200‑day SMA to protect against a potential reversal if the guidance fails to materialize.