What are the risks and potential timeline for the upcoming catalysts associated with AC Immune's pipeline advancements?

Risks:

AC Immune’s upside is still highly contingent on clinical milestones. The primary risks are (1) clinical‑trial uncertainty – any delay, partial enrollment, or negative safety/efficacy data from its lead Alzheimer’s‑targeted candidates (e.g., ACI‑24 or the anti‑α‑synuclein platform) could wipe out the near‑term rally; (2) regulatory timing – FDA/EMA feedback on IND submissions or fast‑track designations can be postponed, extending the “wait‑and‑see” period; (3) funding constraints – although the company has extended its cash runway through operational efficiencies, the runway still only supports the next 12‑18 months of R&D, leaving the stock vulnerable to dilution if a financing round is required; and (4) competitive pressure – several large biotech players are pursuing similar amyloid and synuclein strategies, meaning a modest data read‑out could be quickly eclipsed by a rival’s breakthrough.

Potential Timeline & Catalysts:

- Q4 2024 – Q1 2025: Expected IND filing for the next‑generation anti‑α‑synuclein antibody and pre‑IND feedback for the next vaccine candidate.

- Mid‑2025 (approx. Jun‑Aug): First‑in‑human (Phase 1) safety read‑outs for the lead immunotherapy, which historically serve as the first material catalyst for AC Immune shares.

- Late 2025 (Oct‑Dec): Interim data from the ongoing Phase 1b/2a Alzheimer’s trial (if enrollment proceeds on schedule).

Trading Implications:

Technically the stock is hovering near its 200‑day moving average with modest upside potential on a breakout above the recent resistance around $12.50. The low sentiment score (35) suggests the market is under‑weighting the upcoming data catalysts, creating a risk‑reward bias in favor of a measured long position, especially if the price retraces to the $10‑$10.50 support zone before the Q2 2025 read‑out window. Set a stop‑loss just below the 200‑day MA (≈ $9.80) to protect against a clinical‑setback scenario, and consider scaling in incremental positions as the first safety data date approaches. Keep a close eye on any corporate announcements regarding cash extensions or financing, as a dilution event would materially shift the risk profile.