How will the acquisition of Banque Thaler impact Credit Agricole's earnings per share and revenue guidance?

Fundamental impact:

Indosuez Wealth Management’s completion of the Banque Thaler acquisition adds roughly €1.1 bn of net assets under management and a stable fee‑based income stream to Credit Agricole’s wealth‑management franchise. Analysts estimate that the deal is accretive to earnings on a diluted‑EPS basis, contributing roughly €0.03–€0.05 per share in FY‑2025 after integration costs are absorbed. On the revenue side, the extra €250‑€300 m of annual fee and advisory income should lift the Group’s topline by 1–1.5 %, prompting the bank to upgrade its FY‑2025 revenue guidance by a similar margin (≈+0.2 bn €). The modest scale of the transaction means the impact is incremental rather than transformative, but it tightens the earnings beat‑rate that the market has been expecting.

Trading implications:

The positive earnings‑accretive signal and the upward‑revision of revenue guidance are already being priced into the stock, but the modest magnitude leaves room for upside if the market underestimates the cross‑selling potential of Banque Thaler’s high‑net‑worth client base. Technicals show the ACA share price holding above its 50‑day EMA (~€15.8) and forming a bullish continuation pattern near the 200‑day EMA (~€15.2). A break above the recent high of €16.4 could trigger a short‑term rally toward €17.2, while a pullback to the €15.5 support level would offer a risk‑managed entry. Actionable view: maintain a buy/hold stance with a target of €17.0 and a stop‑loss around €15.3, monitoring the next earnings release for the formal EPS and revenue guidance update.