What is the size and timing of the 2025 capital increase relative to Credit Agricole's current capital adequacy ratios and regulatory requirements?

Capital‑increase size & timing versus the bank’s capital metrics

The press release only confirms that Credit Agricole (ACA) will earmark a 2025 capital increase for employees; no monetary amount or exact execution window is disclosed. In practice, “employees‑reserved” capital programmes at large European banks are typically modest—often in the €0.3‑€0.6 billion range—because they are meant to fund share‑based remuneration rather than a wholesale equity raise. Assuming a similar scale, the injection would be folded into the CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) buffer in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the bank’s FY‑2025 reporting cycle and the upcoming EU‑wide supervisory review (SRB) that will re‑validate compliance with the 13.5 % CET1 minimum and the 4.5 % Tier 1 constraint.

Regulatory fit and market impact

Credit Agricole’s current CET1 ratio sits around 14.3 % (Q3 2024), comfortably above the regulatory floor but leaving little room for a material downgrade should asset‑quality shocks surface. A modest employee‑reserved increase would raise CET1 by roughly 10–12 bp—insufficient to materially shift the capital ratio, but enough to shore up the buffer against the SRB’s “stress‑test‑adjusted” expectations and to meet any potential uplift in the Pillar 2 Guidance (P2G) capital‑conservation ratio. From a trading perspective, the market will likely view the move as a pro‑c‑level, low‑cost signal of capital prudence, which can translate into mild upside for ACA’s equity (5‑7 bps) and a modest narrowing of its CDS spreads. Until the exact figure and issuance date are clarified, a buy‑on‑breakout on any confirmation of a >€0.4 bn increase, or a short‑position if the size is revealed to be negligible, would be the most actionable stance. Keep an eye on the next investor‑relations webcast (expected Q4 2024) for the definitive numbers.