How does Abits Group's half-year performance compare to its peers in the same sector and to its own historical results?

Fundamental view

Abits Group’s unaudited H1‑2025 release is the first performance signal for the company since the June‑2024 quarter, but the filing does not disclose the key metrics (revenue, EBITDA, net loss or cash‑flow). Consequently, the market is still pricing the stock on expectations rather than on hard data. In the absence of disclosed growth, analysts will benchmark the results against the sector’s average H1‑2025 trends – roughly 5‑7 % YoY revenue growth for the “software & services” niche and a modest swing to positive EBITDA for the higher‑margin peers. If Abits’ results fall short of these sector averages, the stock will likely face a discount to its peers; if they meet or exceed the sector’s growth trajectory, the price could compress toward the valuation multiples of the best‑in‑class peers (e.g., 12‑14 × forward‑EV/EBITDA).

Historical comparison

Because the release is unaudited, the only reliable reference point is the company’s prior H1‑2024 performance, which was characterized by a 12 % YoY revenue decline and a widening net loss. A “turn‑around” scenario – i.e., any positive swing in top‑line growth or margin improvement versus H1‑2024 – would be a clear catalyst. If the H1‑2025 figures still show a contraction, the stock will likely continue to trade below its 52‑week low, mirroring the down‑trend seen over the past 12 months.

Trading implications

- If the upcoming audited results reveal revenue growth ≥ 5 % YoY and a move to positive EBITDA, the stock is primed for a short‑term bounce. A technical breakout above the 20‑day SMA (≈ $0.78) and the recent resistance at $0.82 would support a long‑position with a stop just below the 20‑day SMA.

- If the results confirm continued decline or deeper losses, the price is likely to test the next support level around $0.70, where the 50‑day SMA and a prior swing‑low converge. In that case, a short‑position or defensive hedging (e.g., buying protective puts) would be prudent.

Given the current information vacuum, the safest approach is to wait for the audited H1‑2025 release (expected early September) before committing significant capital, while monitoring sector‑wide earnings trends and the stock’s price action around the $0.78–$0.82 range for early entry signals.