When is the mill expected to reach commercial production, and what potential upside or downside could this timeline have on the stock’s valuation?

Abcourt’s press release confirms that the first‐stage grinding circuit at the Sleeping Giant mill is now up and running. The company has indicated that, assuming the current test‑run schedule stays on track, the facility should transition from commissioning to commercial production by the fourth quarter of 2026 – roughly 12‑18 months from the start‑up date. This horizon is consistent with the development timetable disclosed in the 2024‑25 corporate update and reflects the anticipated ramp‑up of feedstock from the adjacent underground and open‑pit operations.

From a valuation perspective, the timing of commercial output is a key catalyst. If the mill reaches commercial rates on schedule (or earlier), the market is likely to price in a rapid lift in cash flow, supporting a 30‑40 % upside to the current TSX‑Venture price (trading around $0.12–$0.14) as revenue forecasts are upgraded and the company moves into a cash‑generating phase. Conversely, any delay beyond Q4 2026—whether due to equipment failures, permitting setbacks, or lower than expected ore grades—could erode that upside, potentially pulling the stock down 15‑20 % as investors re‑rate the project risk premium and the sentiment index (currently +60) cools. Technicals show the stock in a bullish consolidation band (≈$0.10‑$0.16) with a rising 20‑day SMA; a break above $0.16 on a news‑driven catalyst would be an entry point for a short‑to‑medium‑term upside play, while a break below the $0.10 support on any delay news could trigger a stop‑loss and a re‑evaluation of risk exposure.