The merger’s approval will convert Ares Acquisition Corp. II (AACT) from a “blank‑check” SPAC into an operating company that owns Kodiak Robotics’ autonomous‑vehicle platform. In a SPAC, the redemption window typically opens right after the de‑SPAC filing, so the effective registration statement and the Sept‑23 shareholder vote will trigger a wave of cash‑out‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑‑ redemptions. Historically, this erodes the pre‑combination float and compresses the order book, but once the business combination is consummated the “new” AACT shares will re‑list with a genuine free‑float that includes both the original SPAC investors and the equity stake allocated to Kodiak’s management and strategic partners. Expect a short‑term uptick in volume and a modest widening of the bid‑ask spread as market makers rebalance their inventories, followed by a steadier, deeper liquidity pool once the combined entity’s fundamentals are priced.
From a valuation standpoint, the market will shift from a “cash‑in‑the‑bank” pricing model (≈ $10–$12 per share in SPAC trust cash) to a earnings‑based multiple applied to Kodiak’s projected revenue and cash‑flow generation. Analysts will begin benchmarking against public autonomous‑vehicle and logistics peers, adding a forward‑looking EV/EBITDA or price‑to‑sales range to the equity price. If Kodiak’s tech roadmap and growth targets are deemed credible, the stock could trade at a premium to the pre‑combination SPAC price, delivering upside for investors who stay post‑combination. Conversely, a large redemption rate (> 70 %) would shrink the post‑combination free‑float, depress the price, and force the market to discount the equity based on heightened execution risk.
Actionable take‑aways:
- Near‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Anticipate heightened volatility and heavy volume as redemptions and re‑allocation of shares occur. A short‑position could capture the spread swing, but price may be bid‑down if redemption pressure exceeds expected levels.
- Post‑combination (1 month+): Assess Kodiak’s disclosed financials and compare multiples to sector peers. If the upside multiple looks reasonable (e.g., 8‑10× FY‑2026 EV/EBITDA), consider building a long position; if the valuation looks stretched or redemption‑driven float remains thin, hold off or hedge.
Overall, the merger approval should improve AACT’s long‑run liquidity by creating a true operating float, while the valuation will transition from trust‑cash pricing to fundamentally‑driven multiples—opening the door for both short‑term tactical plays and longer‑term growth positioning.