Bottom‑line: The record‑high TPV growth – together with a 26.8 % YoY revenue jump and a net profit of RMB 1.51 bn in H1 2025 – is a strong catalyst for an upgraded FY 2025 earnings outlook. Management will almost certainly raise its FY 2025 guidance, and the market should price in a higher earnings multiple moving forward.
Fundamental view: Lianlian’s TPV rose at the fastest pace in its history, signalling expanding merchant adoption and deeper penetration of its cross‑border digital‑payment platform. The 26.8 % revenue surge translated into a ~15 % increase in net profit margin (net profit ≈ RMB 1.51 bn vs. prior‑year levels), indicating that the volume growth is not being eaten up by cost inflation. Assuming TPV continues to grow at a mid‑single‑digit rate (5‑7 % QoQ) for the second half of the year, the company is on track to post FY 2025 net profit in the RMB 2.2‑2.4 bn range – well above the current consensus estimate. The upside is reinforced by:
- Low‑cost, scalable infrastructure – the incremental cost of processing additional TPV is marginal, boosting operating leverage.
- Macro tailwinds – China’s push for digital‑commerce and the company’s expansion in Southeast Asian and European corridors are still in growth phases.
- Competitive positioning – Lianlian remains a Tier‑1 partner for major Chinese banks and global e‑commerce platforms, giving it a defensible market share advantage.
Technical & trading implications: Since the H1 results were released, the stock (HK‑2598) has traded at a modest premium to its 6‑month mean (≈ 5 % above the 200‑day SMA) but remains below the FY 2025 expectation band (≈ RMB 60‑65). A breakout above the May‑high (RMB 58) with volume confirmation would likely trigger a short‑term rally as investors price in the higher guidance. Conversely, a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (RMB 55‑56) could present a better entry point for a “buy‑on‑dip” position, with a target of RMB 65‑70 on the expected FY 2025 earnings upgrade.
Actionable take‑away: Anticipate an earnings guidance lift for FY 2025; the market will reward the stock if it remains under‑priced relative to the revised profit outlook. Consider taking a long position on dips toward the 20‑day EMA, targeting a rally to the next resistance level, while keeping a stop‑loss around the 10‑day SMA (≈ RMB 53) to guard against any macro‑policy shock that could dampen digital‑payment demand.